Comparing 2024 to 2016
It has been five months since we received our first mailing and I thought it might be interesting to see how we compare to the 2016 race.
In 2016 there were 57 total mailings promoting 11 candidates for the entire 2016 campaign.
Total Snail Mail For 2016
13 - Pursuing America's Greatness (Pro Mike Huckabee / Anti Ted Cruz)
13 - Conservative Solutions Project PAC (Pro Marco Rubio / Anti Ted Cruz)
9 - Right to Rise USA (Pro Jeb Hush)
5 - Cruz for President
3 - Marco Rubio for President
3 - Carson for America, Inc
2 - Unintimidated PAC, Inc. (Pro Scott Walker)
2 - Donald Trump for President Inc.
1 - Keep the Promise (Pro Ted Cruz)
1 - Santorum for President 2016
1 - Carly for America Committee
1 - Believe Again (Pro Bobby Jindal)
1 - America's Liberty PAC (Pro Rand Paul)
1 - The 2016 Committee (Pro Ben Carson)
1 - A Personal Letter supporting Ben Carson
I've added two more mailings from yesterday bringing the 2024 total mailings to 65 for just 7 candidates.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
18 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
10 - SFA Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
9 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
9 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
6 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Pro-Trump / Anti-DeSantis)
2 - Make America Great Again Action, Inc. (Pro-Trump)
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Vivek 2024
No wonder I feel worn out already and we still have three and a half months to go.
A few observations at this point in the race.
1. Although we had just two mailings from Trump last time around, we have already had 6 from Trump's Super PACs. Remember Trump lost Iowa in 2016. They may not be taking anything for granted.
2. Chris Christie didn't send any mailings in 2016 and he hasn't sent any this time.
3. There were 17 candidates in 2016 and we received a mailing from 11 of them (65%). Several dropped out before the Iowa Caucuses. This time around there are currently 13 (was 14 before Francis Suarez dropped out). And we have received a mailing from 7 of them (50%).
There were still a lot of candidates in the race when Iowa started off the voting season. Do we think that will be the same this time around? If so, I think that helps Trump. Last time around, had Rubio and Kasich dropped out earlier, along with a few others, there probably would have been a much different outcome. Will the Republicans repeat that same history again?
While writing this article, I received another phone poll from the "National Polling Institute". This one was definitely not in favor of Trump. They asked several leading questions that sounded very similar to AFP Action mailings. But they also had a single question about Glenn Youngkin. I certainly hope we aren't going to have another candidate enter the race.
In 2016 there were 57 total mailings promoting 11 candidates for the entire 2016 campaign.
Total Snail Mail For 2016
13 - Pursuing America's Greatness (Pro Mike Huckabee / Anti Ted Cruz)
13 - Conservative Solutions Project PAC (Pro Marco Rubio / Anti Ted Cruz)
9 - Right to Rise USA (Pro Jeb Hush)
5 - Cruz for President
3 - Marco Rubio for President
3 - Carson for America, Inc
2 - Unintimidated PAC, Inc. (Pro Scott Walker)
2 - Donald Trump for President Inc.
1 - Keep the Promise (Pro Ted Cruz)
1 - Santorum for President 2016
1 - Carly for America Committee
1 - Believe Again (Pro Bobby Jindal)
1 - America's Liberty PAC (Pro Rand Paul)
1 - The 2016 Committee (Pro Ben Carson)
1 - A Personal Letter supporting Ben Carson
I've added two more mailings from yesterday bringing the 2024 total mailings to 65 for just 7 candidates.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
18 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
10 - SFA Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
9 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
9 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
6 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Pro-Trump / Anti-DeSantis)
2 - Make America Great Again Action, Inc. (Pro-Trump)
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Vivek 2024
No wonder I feel worn out already and we still have three and a half months to go.
A few observations at this point in the race.
1. Although we had just two mailings from Trump last time around, we have already had 6 from Trump's Super PACs. Remember Trump lost Iowa in 2016. They may not be taking anything for granted.
2. Chris Christie didn't send any mailings in 2016 and he hasn't sent any this time.
3. There were 17 candidates in 2016 and we received a mailing from 11 of them (65%). Several dropped out before the Iowa Caucuses. This time around there are currently 13 (was 14 before Francis Suarez dropped out). And we have received a mailing from 7 of them (50%).
There were still a lot of candidates in the race when Iowa started off the voting season. Do we think that will be the same this time around? If so, I think that helps Trump. Last time around, had Rubio and Kasich dropped out earlier, along with a few others, there probably would have been a much different outcome. Will the Republicans repeat that same history again?
While writing this article, I received another phone poll from the "National Polling Institute". This one was definitely not in favor of Trump. They asked several leading questions that sounded very similar to AFP Action mailings. But they also had a single question about Glenn Youngkin. I certainly hope we aren't going to have another candidate enter the race.