Likeability Does Have An Impact
Likeability matters and does have an impact on elections. Steve Deace posted some calculations of polling data on facebook showing each candidates supporters' favorability of each of the other candidates.
Assuming these hold for the next several months, I think there are a couple things we can pull from this.
First, why is Chris Christie in this race? He isn't going to be able to pull votes from any of the other candidates. And since his polling numbers are so low to begin with, I don't think he has any chance what so ever. I've not met a single person yet that says they are even the least bit interested in his campaign. I've not solidified my vote for any candidate yet, but I have marked at least one candidate off the list.
Another thing we can see is that Ron DeSantis and to some degree Tim Scott appear to be the most likeable candidates by their competitor's supporters. Assuming they both stay the course, this is a very good thing for when the field starts to shrink. They will most likely pick up the most supporters that need to find a new candidate to support. Steven Deace makes the very good point that this is the very reason why Trump is still attacking DeSantis.
With all that said, we did receive another Tim Scott supported mailing today. I think his Super PAC sees the recent media frenzy calling for the death of the Ron DeSantis campaign and is trying to take advantage of that.
All the campaigns know that Trump did NOT win the 2014 Iowa Caucuses. Ted Cruz did. They see that they have a very good chance to pull out a win this time.
Snail Mail Totals So Far
9 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
5 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
4 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again (Pro-Trump / Anti-DeSantis)
3 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
3 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
1 - Doug Burgum for America
Assuming these hold for the next several months, I think there are a couple things we can pull from this.
First, why is Chris Christie in this race? He isn't going to be able to pull votes from any of the other candidates. And since his polling numbers are so low to begin with, I don't think he has any chance what so ever. I've not met a single person yet that says they are even the least bit interested in his campaign. I've not solidified my vote for any candidate yet, but I have marked at least one candidate off the list.
Another thing we can see is that Ron DeSantis and to some degree Tim Scott appear to be the most likeable candidates by their competitor's supporters. Assuming they both stay the course, this is a very good thing for when the field starts to shrink. They will most likely pick up the most supporters that need to find a new candidate to support. Steven Deace makes the very good point that this is the very reason why Trump is still attacking DeSantis.
With all that said, we did receive another Tim Scott supported mailing today. I think his Super PAC sees the recent media frenzy calling for the death of the Ron DeSantis campaign and is trying to take advantage of that.
All the campaigns know that Trump did NOT win the 2014 Iowa Caucuses. Ted Cruz did. They see that they have a very good chance to pull out a win this time.
Snail Mail Totals So Far
9 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
5 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
4 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again (Pro-Trump / Anti-DeSantis)
3 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
3 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
1 - Doug Burgum for America