Where Did China Go?
The suspension of the Larry Elder campaign marks the fifth candidate to drop out, leaving us with just 10 candidates.
But the bigger news of the day is that we received our very first Nikki Haley postcard that does not include the word "China" in it. It took 16 mailings before we found our first non-China focused mailing from the Nikki Haley Super PAC, SFA Fund, Inc. Her mail totals are creeping very close to DeSantis.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
18 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
16 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
11 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
10 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
8 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again Action, Inc. (Pro-Trump)
3 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
This mailing was focused on the national debt.
This type of talk is often typical of a lot of Republican politicians, but we haven't seen a lot of action that follows through on preventing the debt from continuing to balloon into astronomical heights. Her mailing does say she would "veto all bills that don't put us back on a track to pre-pandemic levels". Can we hold her to that promise? But why just pre-pandemic? We weren't much better before then.
Either way, it is good to finally see a lighter colored postcard not dealing with China. It helps her campaign not look so one-issue focused. Single-issue candidates don't usually get very far after a quick initial boost. Has her initial boost finally stalled and that is why we finally got a non-China postcard?
We still need to trim this list down a lot more, preferably before the caucuses in January.
Five in less than a month have bowed out. Ideally, at least four more call it quits in the next month and another 3 in December? I know that is wishful thinking to have just two left in January. I honestly don't think we will lose more than one or two more before January.
Here is my best guess at the final list of candidates for the caucuses in January.
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 30% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 30% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 40% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 45% Chance to Drop Out
Tim Scott - 50% Chance to Drop out
Mike Pence - 55% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - 90% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 95% Chance to Drop Out
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023
With all that said though, money can speak volumes when it comes to staying in a race. If your race was dependent on money, and it dries up, then your chance of suspending goes up. However, if your race is not dependent on money, you can stay in longer even when the money dries up.
But the bigger news of the day is that we received our very first Nikki Haley postcard that does not include the word "China" in it. It took 16 mailings before we found our first non-China focused mailing from the Nikki Haley Super PAC, SFA Fund, Inc. Her mail totals are creeping very close to DeSantis.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
18 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
16 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
11 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
10 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
8 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again Action, Inc. (Pro-Trump)
3 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
This mailing was focused on the national debt.
This type of talk is often typical of a lot of Republican politicians, but we haven't seen a lot of action that follows through on preventing the debt from continuing to balloon into astronomical heights. Her mailing does say she would "veto all bills that don't put us back on a track to pre-pandemic levels". Can we hold her to that promise? But why just pre-pandemic? We weren't much better before then.
Either way, it is good to finally see a lighter colored postcard not dealing with China. It helps her campaign not look so one-issue focused. Single-issue candidates don't usually get very far after a quick initial boost. Has her initial boost finally stalled and that is why we finally got a non-China postcard?
We still need to trim this list down a lot more, preferably before the caucuses in January.
Five in less than a month have bowed out. Ideally, at least four more call it quits in the next month and another 3 in December? I know that is wishful thinking to have just two left in January. I honestly don't think we will lose more than one or two more before January.
Here is my best guess at the final list of candidates for the caucuses in January.
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 30% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 30% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 40% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 45% Chance to Drop Out
Tim Scott - 50% Chance to Drop out
Mike Pence - 55% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - 90% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 95% Chance to Drop Out
With all that said though, money can speak volumes when it comes to staying in a race. If your race was dependent on money, and it dries up, then your chance of suspending goes up. However, if your race is not dependent on money, you can stay in longer even when the money dries up.