Fewer Candidates Hurts Trump
Tim Scott surprised everyone Sunday night with an announcement that he was calling it quits.
We had not received a Tim Scott mailing in over a month. That is often a sign that the Super PACs are not wanting to spend money on their candidate for various reasons.
One of the biggest reasons is that either the money for their candidate has dried up or the Super PACs have decided it just isn't worth it anymore. Either one is usually not a good sign for the candidate's long term viability.
Seven candidates now have dropped out, leaving us just eight. I've updated my list of candidates and my guesses on their chance to drop out before we vote in Iowa in January.
Chance to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 10% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 15% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 20% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 45% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - 70% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 95% Chance to Drop Out
Tim Scott - November 12, 2023
Mike Pence - October 28, 2023
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023
Let me explain my guesses above. I believe Hutchinson is the most likely to drop out at this point. He hasn't sent any mailings, doesn't show up in poll numbers anymore, and I've not heard anyone talk about him ever. I don't see any options for him in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Not only do I give him a very high chance of dropping out before the Caucuses, I would guess he may call it quits before December.
Doug Burgum is in a similar situation as far as the polls go. No one is talking about him and we have only received one mailing from his Super PAC in the last three weeks. Burgum does have some personal money he can spend if need be though. But to what extent will that help him? I don't see him doing well in any state beyond Iowa, so there isn't much reason for him to remain in this race.
Ryan Binkley is the most unknown candidate left in the race. Perhaps he is the most unknown candidate of all the candidates even before they started dropping out. He's not spending money or mailers or big media buys. He hasn't had any big Super PACs supporting him either. He has nothing to lose by staying in the race. So he may be in this until after Iowa votes. At the same time, I think he recognizes that there is a very small chance of him winning anything, so I currently predict about a 45% chance he drops out before we vote in Iowa.
Nikki Haley currently has no reason to drop out, but we are still a couple months out from voting. If she is on the high of her trajectory in the polls, she could very well drop out before January. If she is still in the upward momentum stage, then she will stay in. If she stays for Iowa and gets at least third place, I say she stays in through at least South Carolina. But if she faulters in Iowa, then it's hard to say if she wants to roll the dice on her home state. Tim Scott's departure from the race makes her chances of staying in the race go up. She is also Trump's biggest hope for Iowa. The more candidates in the race, the better Trump has at winning Iowa. As more drop out, Trump's chances to win Iowa get smaller. With that said, I believe Haley is playing the same role in South Carolina that Rubio played 8 years ago in Florida against Ted Cruz. Trump wins when the vote is diluted.
Chris Christie is hoping on New Hampshire. He has very little reason to care about Iowa and with that said, there is very little chance he drops out before the Caucuses in Iowa.
Ramaswamy is in a similar boat as Ryan Binkley when it comes to not having much at stake by staying in the race. I don't see much of a reason for Ramaswamy to exit the race. With that said, smart business people do have a mind that eventually says this no longer makes financial sense. When that happens for him, I don't know. But my current guess is that is not until after Iowa votes.
Ron DeSantis is in second place in Iowa. He has zero reasons to drop out of the race. I personally believe the race is much closer than the polls show. Yard signs haven't really gone up in force yet, but the few that have, along with the mailings we are getting, are leading me toward believing the race is much closer than the media wants you to believe.
Which leads us to the latest two postcards we received in the mail today. Two from the MAGAPAC. One in favor of Trump. The other going against DeSantis. I've said it before, but it should be said again. You don't attack other candidates if they are not someone you need to worry about. All you do is bring attention to them. But if they already have the attention and you see signs they are either leading you in the polls or have the potential to win, then you attack them.
I fully believe that any lead Trump might have in Iowa at the moment is small at best. Trump is hoping for as many candidates to stay in the race as possible to help dilute the anti-trump vote.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
20 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
18 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
11 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again Action, Inc. (Pro-Trump)
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
2 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
We had not received a Tim Scott mailing in over a month. That is often a sign that the Super PACs are not wanting to spend money on their candidate for various reasons.
One of the biggest reasons is that either the money for their candidate has dried up or the Super PACs have decided it just isn't worth it anymore. Either one is usually not a good sign for the candidate's long term viability.
Seven candidates now have dropped out, leaving us just eight. I've updated my list of candidates and my guesses on their chance to drop out before we vote in Iowa in January.
Chance to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 10% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 15% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 20% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 45% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - 70% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 95% Chance to Drop Out
Let me explain my guesses above. I believe Hutchinson is the most likely to drop out at this point. He hasn't sent any mailings, doesn't show up in poll numbers anymore, and I've not heard anyone talk about him ever. I don't see any options for him in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Not only do I give him a very high chance of dropping out before the Caucuses, I would guess he may call it quits before December.
Doug Burgum is in a similar situation as far as the polls go. No one is talking about him and we have only received one mailing from his Super PAC in the last three weeks. Burgum does have some personal money he can spend if need be though. But to what extent will that help him? I don't see him doing well in any state beyond Iowa, so there isn't much reason for him to remain in this race.
Ryan Binkley is the most unknown candidate left in the race. Perhaps he is the most unknown candidate of all the candidates even before they started dropping out. He's not spending money or mailers or big media buys. He hasn't had any big Super PACs supporting him either. He has nothing to lose by staying in the race. So he may be in this until after Iowa votes. At the same time, I think he recognizes that there is a very small chance of him winning anything, so I currently predict about a 45% chance he drops out before we vote in Iowa.
Nikki Haley currently has no reason to drop out, but we are still a couple months out from voting. If she is on the high of her trajectory in the polls, she could very well drop out before January. If she is still in the upward momentum stage, then she will stay in. If she stays for Iowa and gets at least third place, I say she stays in through at least South Carolina. But if she faulters in Iowa, then it's hard to say if she wants to roll the dice on her home state. Tim Scott's departure from the race makes her chances of staying in the race go up. She is also Trump's biggest hope for Iowa. The more candidates in the race, the better Trump has at winning Iowa. As more drop out, Trump's chances to win Iowa get smaller. With that said, I believe Haley is playing the same role in South Carolina that Rubio played 8 years ago in Florida against Ted Cruz. Trump wins when the vote is diluted.
Chris Christie is hoping on New Hampshire. He has very little reason to care about Iowa and with that said, there is very little chance he drops out before the Caucuses in Iowa.
Ramaswamy is in a similar boat as Ryan Binkley when it comes to not having much at stake by staying in the race. I don't see much of a reason for Ramaswamy to exit the race. With that said, smart business people do have a mind that eventually says this no longer makes financial sense. When that happens for him, I don't know. But my current guess is that is not until after Iowa votes.
Ron DeSantis is in second place in Iowa. He has zero reasons to drop out of the race. I personally believe the race is much closer than the polls show. Yard signs haven't really gone up in force yet, but the few that have, along with the mailings we are getting, are leading me toward believing the race is much closer than the media wants you to believe.
Which leads us to the latest two postcards we received in the mail today. Two from the MAGAPAC. One in favor of Trump. The other going against DeSantis. I've said it before, but it should be said again. You don't attack other candidates if they are not someone you need to worry about. All you do is bring attention to them. But if they already have the attention and you see signs they are either leading you in the polls or have the potential to win, then you attack them.
I fully believe that any lead Trump might have in Iowa at the moment is small at best. Trump is hoping for as many candidates to stay in the race as possible to help dilute the anti-trump vote.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
20 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
18 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
11 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Make America Great Again Action, Inc. (Pro-Trump)
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
2 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc