Trump, DeSantis, and Haley, But Not Burgum
Doug Burgum became the eighth Republican candidate to suspend his campaign today. It had been exactly one month since we last received a mailing from Burgum's Best of America Super PAC. So it came as no surprise when Burgum announced the suspension of his campaign today.
Now that we are past the half-way number of candidates, let's re-evaluate my guesses on the drop out chances for the remaining candidates.
Chance to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 5% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 15% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 20% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 35% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 95% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - December 12, 2023
Tim Scott - November 12, 2023
Mike Pence - October 28, 2023
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023
Other than perhaps Hutchinson, I am not so sure anyone else is going to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses.
Although Burgum flirted with sending the most campaign mailings for a short period of time, once Haley's Super PAC started spamming us with something other than China-focused postcards, Burgum's Super PAC ceased their own postcard onslaught.
Burgum's postcards were well designed and colorful in a good way. They were usually double the size of the typical postcard mailings and used thicker cardstock than many of the other campaigns. His Super PAC even sent out a large, multi-page booklet on thick cardstock at the beginning of his campaign to help introduce the candidate.
But it wasn't enough. His name and message didn't really catch on with Iowa voters. I still find it difficult to find any Iowan, other than the hard core news and political junkies, that would even know who Burgum is.
Contrast Burgum with the three other candidates that we have received mailings from over the past two weeks.
Let's start with Trump. The latest mailing supporting Trump is a postcard from his own campaign. This is not the typical postcard that campaigns or Super PACs send out. Instead of highlighting particular issues or attacking other candidates, this postcard focuses on making sure people know when and where one will caucus. It is very informative. It's only the second mailing we have received from the actual Trump campaign this election cycle. But that is not any different than eight years ago. Campaigns don't tend to send out mailings. They leave that up to the Super PACs.
Today we received two postcards from the SFA Fund that supports Nikki Haley. This Super PAC has been spending a lot of money. Today's mailings put Nikki Haley back into first place when it comes to mailings we have received this year. But the creativity is lacking. More than half of them are solely focused on China and they are all the exact same size. This was not the first time we received two in the same day. I do not understand the thinking behind the SFA Fund's mailing strategy.
Meanwhile, the DeSantis campaign and the Never Back Down Super PAC have been quiet on the mailing front for a long time. We haven't received a regular mailing from Never Back Down since September 29. That is over 2 months. But just over a week ago or so we did received two non-typical mailings. One was a box with a ball cap, bumper sticker, and caucus pledge cards. It also contained a letter from Taylor Haller, who has the title of Iowa Caucus Director for the Never Back Down Super PAC. Baseball caps appear to be very popular this year as we have received them from multiple campaigns.
This letter says I am a precinct captain (sort of as it also has it scratched off in one place). This type of thing happened 8 years ago with the Keep the Promise Super PAC that supported Ted Cruz. Somehow we found ourselves on a list or something that puts us in a position we didn't know we had.
We also received another letter the same day as the box. This letter (from Noah Jennings, the Iowa Political Director for Never Back Down) came with a $20 gift card to help pay for expenses that go along with hosting a debate watch party between DeSantis and Newsom.
We hosted an event with some people in our town including a couple who had moved from California to Iowa several years ago. They also received the same gift card letter the same day we did. And they also received the box a few weeks before we did.
There is a clear strategy difference between what the DeSantis Super PAC is doing and the other campaigns' Super PACs are doing.
Nikki Haley is spamming postcards to Iowans, but not really visiting Iowans outside the bigger cities. She appears more focused on New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Trump's campaign and his Super PACs continue to attack DeSantis while trying to make sure their supporters actually show up at the Caucuses.
DeSantis' Super PAC sent out the mass mailings early in the campaign, but is now focused on more targeted special mailings that they hope will help spread the word via friends and neighbors thus sparking conversations that will improve their caucus night turnout. DeSantis has visited ever single county in Iowa and his wife has spent time making campaign stops as well.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
22 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
17 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
2 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
1 - Doug Burgum for America
Now that we are past the half-way number of candidates, let's re-evaluate my guesses on the drop out chances for the remaining candidates.
Chance to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 5% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 15% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 20% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 35% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 95% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - December 12, 2023
Tim Scott - November 12, 2023
Mike Pence - October 28, 2023
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023
Other than perhaps Hutchinson, I am not so sure anyone else is going to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses.
Although Burgum flirted with sending the most campaign mailings for a short period of time, once Haley's Super PAC started spamming us with something other than China-focused postcards, Burgum's Super PAC ceased their own postcard onslaught.
Burgum's postcards were well designed and colorful in a good way. They were usually double the size of the typical postcard mailings and used thicker cardstock than many of the other campaigns. His Super PAC even sent out a large, multi-page booklet on thick cardstock at the beginning of his campaign to help introduce the candidate.
But it wasn't enough. His name and message didn't really catch on with Iowa voters. I still find it difficult to find any Iowan, other than the hard core news and political junkies, that would even know who Burgum is.
Contrast Burgum with the three other candidates that we have received mailings from over the past two weeks.
Let's start with Trump. The latest mailing supporting Trump is a postcard from his own campaign. This is not the typical postcard that campaigns or Super PACs send out. Instead of highlighting particular issues or attacking other candidates, this postcard focuses on making sure people know when and where one will caucus. It is very informative. It's only the second mailing we have received from the actual Trump campaign this election cycle. But that is not any different than eight years ago. Campaigns don't tend to send out mailings. They leave that up to the Super PACs.
Today we received two postcards from the SFA Fund that supports Nikki Haley. This Super PAC has been spending a lot of money. Today's mailings put Nikki Haley back into first place when it comes to mailings we have received this year. But the creativity is lacking. More than half of them are solely focused on China and they are all the exact same size. This was not the first time we received two in the same day. I do not understand the thinking behind the SFA Fund's mailing strategy.
Meanwhile, the DeSantis campaign and the Never Back Down Super PAC have been quiet on the mailing front for a long time. We haven't received a regular mailing from Never Back Down since September 29. That is over 2 months. But just over a week ago or so we did received two non-typical mailings. One was a box with a ball cap, bumper sticker, and caucus pledge cards. It also contained a letter from Taylor Haller, who has the title of Iowa Caucus Director for the Never Back Down Super PAC. Baseball caps appear to be very popular this year as we have received them from multiple campaigns.
This letter says I am a precinct captain (sort of as it also has it scratched off in one place). This type of thing happened 8 years ago with the Keep the Promise Super PAC that supported Ted Cruz. Somehow we found ourselves on a list or something that puts us in a position we didn't know we had.
We also received another letter the same day as the box. This letter (from Noah Jennings, the Iowa Political Director for Never Back Down) came with a $20 gift card to help pay for expenses that go along with hosting a debate watch party between DeSantis and Newsom.
We hosted an event with some people in our town including a couple who had moved from California to Iowa several years ago. They also received the same gift card letter the same day we did. And they also received the box a few weeks before we did.
There is a clear strategy difference between what the DeSantis Super PAC is doing and the other campaigns' Super PACs are doing.
Nikki Haley is spamming postcards to Iowans, but not really visiting Iowans outside the bigger cities. She appears more focused on New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Trump's campaign and his Super PACs continue to attack DeSantis while trying to make sure their supporters actually show up at the Caucuses.
DeSantis' Super PAC sent out the mass mailings early in the campaign, but is now focused on more targeted special mailings that they hope will help spread the word via friends and neighbors thus sparking conversations that will improve their caucus night turnout. DeSantis has visited ever single county in Iowa and his wife has spent time making campaign stops as well.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
22 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
17 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
2 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
1 - Doug Burgum for America