The Debate and Voter Turnout Versus Poll Numbers
I declare the winner of the fourth Republican debate to be News Nation. Although things still got loud and obnoxious at times, it seemed to settle down somewhat and go more smoothly than other debates. It also seemed to cover a much broader list of topics.
Nikki Haley took the most blows. Although she recovered from some, I think she also took the most damage. I don't have the experience of meeting her in person so I can't filter her debate performance in light of what she is like in person like I can with DeSantis and Ramaswamy. That is a big disadvantage for her campaign. To me, she comes off as a Republican establishment candidate.
Chris Christie is still Chris Christie. He complained about others not answering questions directly, but he didn't answer several questions directly. When he came to Haley's defense against Ramaswamy's attack, it may have helped him, but I think it hurt both Haley and Ramaswamy.
Ramaswamy's strengths are also his weaknesses. He is willing to attack and do it fiercely but he takes it too far many times. It is one thing to point out stances by other people, but his attacks can start to look like he is just name calling and that doesn't win you support beyond a few of the more rapid Trump type voters. But those votes aren't leaving Trump.
I think DeSantis' only drawback at this point is his facial expressions. For some reason they just seem off to me when he is on tv. It wasn't that way when we met him in person either time; but on tv, they sometimes look strange.
We received four mailings this week. Two from Haley's SFA Fund, one from Donald Trump's campaign, and one from Trump's MAGA Super PAC.
Which brings us to the totals we see here:
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
24 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
18 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
3 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
Eight years ago, the winner of the Iowa Caucuses (Ted Cruz) came in fourth place in total mailings. Rubio, Huckabee, and Bush came before him. So we usually see that the campaigns sending out the most mailings are not the first place winners. They are either making last ditch efforts or just needing to spend money for the sake of spending money.
That doesn't bode well for the Haley campaign in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Trump has well-outpaced his mailings from eight years ago. That is not the sign of a person leading by such great numbers in the polls.
Turnout is key and I think that the Trump campaign is worried about turnout. Trump did not turnout votes in the last couple elections. His influence was significantly lacking across the many house races. That might explain why we received a second mailing from Trump's campaign in two weeks time dealing with where and when to vote.
I firmly believe that most polls tend to have trouble detecting turnout for specific candidates on a state level. Just because a person says they will vote for someone does not mean they will show up to vote. Polls supposedly try to take this into account by looking at a person's history of voting. But there are four years of new young voters every election cycle and 4 years of fewer voters on the other end of the age spectrum. I don't envy pollsters.
Nikki Haley took the most blows. Although she recovered from some, I think she also took the most damage. I don't have the experience of meeting her in person so I can't filter her debate performance in light of what she is like in person like I can with DeSantis and Ramaswamy. That is a big disadvantage for her campaign. To me, she comes off as a Republican establishment candidate.
Chris Christie is still Chris Christie. He complained about others not answering questions directly, but he didn't answer several questions directly. When he came to Haley's defense against Ramaswamy's attack, it may have helped him, but I think it hurt both Haley and Ramaswamy.
Ramaswamy's strengths are also his weaknesses. He is willing to attack and do it fiercely but he takes it too far many times. It is one thing to point out stances by other people, but his attacks can start to look like he is just name calling and that doesn't win you support beyond a few of the more rapid Trump type voters. But those votes aren't leaving Trump.
I think DeSantis' only drawback at this point is his facial expressions. For some reason they just seem off to me when he is on tv. It wasn't that way when we met him in person either time; but on tv, they sometimes look strange.
We received four mailings this week. Two from Haley's SFA Fund, one from Donald Trump's campaign, and one from Trump's MAGA Super PAC.
Which brings us to the totals we see here:
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
24 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
18 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
3 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
Eight years ago, the winner of the Iowa Caucuses (Ted Cruz) came in fourth place in total mailings. Rubio, Huckabee, and Bush came before him. So we usually see that the campaigns sending out the most mailings are not the first place winners. They are either making last ditch efforts or just needing to spend money for the sake of spending money.
That doesn't bode well for the Haley campaign in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Trump has well-outpaced his mailings from eight years ago. That is not the sign of a person leading by such great numbers in the polls.
Turnout is key and I think that the Trump campaign is worried about turnout. Trump did not turnout votes in the last couple elections. His influence was significantly lacking across the many house races. That might explain why we received a second mailing from Trump's campaign in two weeks time dealing with where and when to vote.
I firmly believe that most polls tend to have trouble detecting turnout for specific candidates on a state level. Just because a person says they will vote for someone does not mean they will show up to vote. Polls supposedly try to take this into account by looking at a person's history of voting. But there are four years of new young voters every election cycle and 4 years of fewer voters on the other end of the age spectrum. I don't envy pollsters.