The Home Stretch and My Vote Goes to...
I am voting for Ron DeSantis.
We have entered the home stretch before Iowans vote January 15, 2024. Just 30 days of last minute mailings, radio and tv ads, increased phone calls, campaign stops, and social posts.
So, let's take a look at the state of the election. Which candidates are still serious and which ones may have ulterior motives? What are their strategies at this point?
Let's start with this week's mailings. The Trump super PAC's recent mailings and phone calls have taken a mostly positive tone. Instead of attacking DeSantis, they have focused on trying to show Trump in a positive light and also just trying to get the vote out with reminders on how, where, and when to vote.
The phone calls (polls, push polls, and campaign calls) we have received this week, combined with Trump's own statements, lead me to believe that Trump's campaign is worried about voter turnout.
This tells me that they believe they can win Iowa, but only if their supporters turn out to vote. They are worried that their voters are not as enthusiastic as other candidates' voters. This is not a good sign for the Trump campaign.
There is also a big change in the tone of our other two mailings of the week. These came from the Nikki Haley super PAC Stand for America. But they are not the typical pro-Haley mailings. These are purely anti-DeSantis mailings.
You don't attack someone unless they are doing better than you are doing. And it seldom makes since to attack someone that is not in first place. This tells me that the Haley campaign sees DeSantis as their biggest enemy in the Iowa Caucuses.
If DeSantis wins Iowa, Haley's campaign in New Hampshire and even her home state of South Carolina becomes much more difficult. A Trump win in Iowa is better for Haley than a DeSantis win. Her campaign has known this since the very beginning. But they didn't want to play their hand unless it became necessary. They must see something that the Trump campaign sees too and have decided to start fully attacking DeSantis.
DeSantis' ground game has really started to scare both campaigns. Trump and Haley have NOT visited Iowans anywhere near as much as the DeSantis campaign has. And when they do visit Iowans, its almost always in a big city.
Not visiting the smaller towns and farmland is problematic at best. Eight years ago, Trump, Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, and others made this same mistake. Cruz surprised many outsiders with his win against Trump, but it had become pretty obvious that Cruz had a very good chance to win Iowa in the last month. All the mailings were against Cruz and the ground game difference was tremendous.
Haley's campaign is making the same mistake the Bush, Rubio, and Huckabee super PACs made eight years ago. Send a lot of attack ads and ignore small town campaign stops. It becomes really hard to look people in the face when you just sent them several attack ads.
There was a longer term influence on the election last time though. And that is the media's coverage of the campaign. Attack ads and pundits go well together in the media. And they do have an influence on future state campaigns. And the longer each campaign decided to stay in the race, it diluted the vote. This gave Trump the eventual nomination.
The same thing is happening this time. The Haley super PAC knows they are not going to win Iowa. If they fail in New Hampshire and stay in the race for Nevada and South Carolina, they are basically giving the race to Trump.
Although Trump's and Haley's personalities are quite different, their stances on the issues appear very similar. DeSantis' stances are more conservative than both Trump and Haley. But many voters votes are significantly influenced by personality. Your anti-trump voter that is not a true conservative is going to lean toward Haley instead of DeSantis. Basically, Haley is pulling the Jeb Bush and other establishment voters from eight years ago. They can't stand Trump, but they hate true conservatism.
So what about the remaining candidates?
Asa Hutchinson does not have a serious campaign. He isn't even visiting Iowa.
Chris Christie has admitted that he has never tried to win Iowa. He is focusing on New Hampshire.
Ryan Binkley just doesn't have the name recognition. He is still making a handful of stops in Iowa, but at this point, his chances are not any better than Christie's or Hutchinson's chances.
Vivek Ramaswamy is still making a lot of stops in Iowa. He has a great personality for campaign stops, but not a personality for a VP position. So I am not sure where his campaign goes at this point. I do believe he will siphon away votes from DeSantis the most.
I firmly believe DeSantis has one of the best chances of all the candidates to win Iowa. But that is not why I am voting for him. Not because I believe he can win, but because of why he can win. I think his stances on the issues, combined with his calm demeanor, and his executive experience in Florida are a great combination for a President. And I think Iowans can see this.
People talk about ground games in Iowa elections. But the outside world and media only look at ground games as signs of how good a campaign is. In reality, a ground game can only succeed if a candidate is liked by the actual voters. A ground game exists because people are willing to stand behind a candidate. As a candidate's ground game gets bigger, it is because more people are supporting that candidate.
This is what I see is happening with the DeSantis campaign.
I've never been a Trump fan. Sure, I believe he has been falsely attacked on multiple levels, but that doesn't mean I believe he is the best person to be President. Far from it.
I don't believe Nikki Haley wants my vote. She's surely not trying to convince me to vote for her. And right now, she is only trying to convince me to not vote for other people. That is not what I look for in a candidate.
Ramaswamy is untested. Although he says a lot of good things, I just don't see a record I can look at to prove he will do what he says. We have been burned too many times in the past with broken-promise candidates. Maybe he can run for Governor in Ohio or run for a House or Senate seat in Ohio and return in eight years and see what he has then.
I have always had Ron DeSantis at the top of my list, but I am making it official today, I am voting for Ron DeSantis.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
26 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley / Anti-DeSantis)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
19 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
3 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
We have entered the home stretch before Iowans vote January 15, 2024. Just 30 days of last minute mailings, radio and tv ads, increased phone calls, campaign stops, and social posts.
So, let's take a look at the state of the election. Which candidates are still serious and which ones may have ulterior motives? What are their strategies at this point?
Let's start with this week's mailings. The Trump super PAC's recent mailings and phone calls have taken a mostly positive tone. Instead of attacking DeSantis, they have focused on trying to show Trump in a positive light and also just trying to get the vote out with reminders on how, where, and when to vote.
The phone calls (polls, push polls, and campaign calls) we have received this week, combined with Trump's own statements, lead me to believe that Trump's campaign is worried about voter turnout.
This tells me that they believe they can win Iowa, but only if their supporters turn out to vote. They are worried that their voters are not as enthusiastic as other candidates' voters. This is not a good sign for the Trump campaign.
There is also a big change in the tone of our other two mailings of the week. These came from the Nikki Haley super PAC Stand for America. But they are not the typical pro-Haley mailings. These are purely anti-DeSantis mailings.
You don't attack someone unless they are doing better than you are doing. And it seldom makes since to attack someone that is not in first place. This tells me that the Haley campaign sees DeSantis as their biggest enemy in the Iowa Caucuses.
If DeSantis wins Iowa, Haley's campaign in New Hampshire and even her home state of South Carolina becomes much more difficult. A Trump win in Iowa is better for Haley than a DeSantis win. Her campaign has known this since the very beginning. But they didn't want to play their hand unless it became necessary. They must see something that the Trump campaign sees too and have decided to start fully attacking DeSantis.
DeSantis' ground game has really started to scare both campaigns. Trump and Haley have NOT visited Iowans anywhere near as much as the DeSantis campaign has. And when they do visit Iowans, its almost always in a big city.
Not visiting the smaller towns and farmland is problematic at best. Eight years ago, Trump, Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, and others made this same mistake. Cruz surprised many outsiders with his win against Trump, but it had become pretty obvious that Cruz had a very good chance to win Iowa in the last month. All the mailings were against Cruz and the ground game difference was tremendous.
Haley's campaign is making the same mistake the Bush, Rubio, and Huckabee super PACs made eight years ago. Send a lot of attack ads and ignore small town campaign stops. It becomes really hard to look people in the face when you just sent them several attack ads.
There was a longer term influence on the election last time though. And that is the media's coverage of the campaign. Attack ads and pundits go well together in the media. And they do have an influence on future state campaigns. And the longer each campaign decided to stay in the race, it diluted the vote. This gave Trump the eventual nomination.
The same thing is happening this time. The Haley super PAC knows they are not going to win Iowa. If they fail in New Hampshire and stay in the race for Nevada and South Carolina, they are basically giving the race to Trump.
Although Trump's and Haley's personalities are quite different, their stances on the issues appear very similar. DeSantis' stances are more conservative than both Trump and Haley. But many voters votes are significantly influenced by personality. Your anti-trump voter that is not a true conservative is going to lean toward Haley instead of DeSantis. Basically, Haley is pulling the Jeb Bush and other establishment voters from eight years ago. They can't stand Trump, but they hate true conservatism.
So what about the remaining candidates?
Asa Hutchinson does not have a serious campaign. He isn't even visiting Iowa.
Chris Christie has admitted that he has never tried to win Iowa. He is focusing on New Hampshire.
Ryan Binkley just doesn't have the name recognition. He is still making a handful of stops in Iowa, but at this point, his chances are not any better than Christie's or Hutchinson's chances.
Vivek Ramaswamy is still making a lot of stops in Iowa. He has a great personality for campaign stops, but not a personality for a VP position. So I am not sure where his campaign goes at this point. I do believe he will siphon away votes from DeSantis the most.
I firmly believe DeSantis has one of the best chances of all the candidates to win Iowa. But that is not why I am voting for him. Not because I believe he can win, but because of why he can win. I think his stances on the issues, combined with his calm demeanor, and his executive experience in Florida are a great combination for a President. And I think Iowans can see this.
People talk about ground games in Iowa elections. But the outside world and media only look at ground games as signs of how good a campaign is. In reality, a ground game can only succeed if a candidate is liked by the actual voters. A ground game exists because people are willing to stand behind a candidate. As a candidate's ground game gets bigger, it is because more people are supporting that candidate.
This is what I see is happening with the DeSantis campaign.
I've never been a Trump fan. Sure, I believe he has been falsely attacked on multiple levels, but that doesn't mean I believe he is the best person to be President. Far from it.
I don't believe Nikki Haley wants my vote. She's surely not trying to convince me to vote for her. And right now, she is only trying to convince me to not vote for other people. That is not what I look for in a candidate.
Ramaswamy is untested. Although he says a lot of good things, I just don't see a record I can look at to prove he will do what he says. We have been burned too many times in the past with broken-promise candidates. Maybe he can run for Governor in Ohio or run for a House or Senate seat in Ohio and return in eight years and see what he has then.
I have always had Ron DeSantis at the top of my list, but I am making it official today, I am voting for Ron DeSantis.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
26 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley / Anti-DeSantis)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
19 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
12 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
3 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America