Trump and Haley Tag Team DeSantis
Earlier in the campaign Trump attacked DeSantis and Haley touted her anti-China stances, but now Haley is attacking DeSantis and Trump is touting his anti-China stances. It almost seems like they are tag-teaming DeSantis.
We have received a slew of Trump and Haley mailings the past few days that solidify this swap in approaches. The DeSantis campaign has noticed this apparent team-up as well and published a new website saying as much.
I may sound like a broken record, but 8 years ago we saw a big attack against Ted Cruz right before he pulled out a win against Trump in Iowa. This race is much closer than what the media is reporting.
Haley has given up on trying to win Iowa (I don't think she ever tried). She is just hoping to do as much damage to DeSantis as she can before New Hampshire and South Carolina. Trump is worried about Iowa (his campaign is thinking back on how 2016 turned out). But if someone doesn't send us something different in the mail over the next couple weeks, I'll probably just save a lot of the mailings for fewer yet bigger articles.
I do want to adjust my predictions for who might drop out of the race though. At this point, it is unlikely any of the top three will drop out and almost as unlikely any of the others will either. It's a numbers game for Trump now and the more candidates that are still in the race the better Trump's chances are at winning the Iowa Caucuses and the nomination.
Chance to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 1% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 2% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 20% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 40% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - December 12, 2023
Tim Scott - November 12, 2023
Mike Pence - October 28, 2023
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023
And with the latest batch of postcards, MAGA moves into second place while Trump's own campaign moves up into a tie for seventh place. Haley's Super PAC Stand for America continues to push their first place lead even further.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
30 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley / Anti-DeSantis)
22 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
13 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump / Pro-Haley)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
5 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Ryan Binkley for President
1 - America Strong and Free Action Inc. (Pro-Hutchinson / Anti-Trump)
We have received a slew of Trump and Haley mailings the past few days that solidify this swap in approaches. The DeSantis campaign has noticed this apparent team-up as well and published a new website saying as much.
I may sound like a broken record, but 8 years ago we saw a big attack against Ted Cruz right before he pulled out a win against Trump in Iowa. This race is much closer than what the media is reporting.
Haley has given up on trying to win Iowa (I don't think she ever tried). She is just hoping to do as much damage to DeSantis as she can before New Hampshire and South Carolina. Trump is worried about Iowa (his campaign is thinking back on how 2016 turned out). But if someone doesn't send us something different in the mail over the next couple weeks, I'll probably just save a lot of the mailings for fewer yet bigger articles.
I do want to adjust my predictions for who might drop out of the race though. At this point, it is unlikely any of the top three will drop out and almost as unlikely any of the others will either. It's a numbers game for Trump now and the more candidates that are still in the race the better Trump's chances are at winning the Iowa Caucuses and the nomination.
Chance to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Chris Christie - 1% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - 2% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 20% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 40% Chance to Drop Out
Doug Burgum - December 12, 2023
Tim Scott - November 12, 2023
Mike Pence - October 28, 2023
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023
And with the latest batch of postcards, MAGA moves into second place while Trump's own campaign moves up into a tie for seventh place. Haley's Super PAC Stand for America continues to push their first place lead even further.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
30 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley / Anti-DeSantis)
22 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
20 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
13 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump / Pro-Haley)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
5 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - Ryan Binkley for President
1 - America Strong and Free Action Inc. (Pro-Hutchinson / Anti-Trump)