Iowa Caucus Debrief
There is a lot to learn from the Iowa Caucuses beyond the final preference poll results.
But let's start with the results. Trump tends to always under-perform his polls. That looks to be the case this time around as well, although not by a lot, as it is well within any margin of errors of most polls.
Meanwhile all the other candidates did better than the polls said they would, especially DeSantis. The most recent polls had DeSantis well below what he actually ended up doing. In fact, his average poll numbers have been off since July. It is my experience that conservative candidates almost always do better than the polls say they will.
But why do I call DeSantis the "conservative" candidate? Because he got most of his votes from the conservative parts of Iowa. While Haley got a lot of her votes from the more liberal parts of Iowa. How much cross-over votes from the Democrat Party played into this is hard to tell, but the AP reported at least one such voter did this.
The AP VOTECAST is a survey of Iowans done for the Associated Press and Fox News. A few tidbits of interest.
The youngest voters were interested in Ramaswamy while the oldest voters were interested in DeSantis.
Haley pulled in the self-identified moderate voters.
Trump's influence among those that live in the suburbs is much lower than those that live other places.
Nikki Haley and Christie received support from the pro-choice crowds.
Nikki Haley won the support of the anti-wall voters.
Meanwhile Ramaswamy drops out and endorses Trump. Burgum has recently endorsed Trump.
Going forward, Binkley and Hutchinson should drop out soon and that will leave just three candidates. Haley will do better in the left leaning New Hampshire but not enough to beat Trump. Then the Republicans move on to Nevada. If DeSantis can pull off a win or good showing here he may be able to survive past Haley's South Carolina. If Haley can't win South Carolina, she is done. Does she stay in that long if it looks like she may lose her home state? I don't know at this point.
After South Carolina, there are just a handful of caucuses before Super Tuesday hits. If the race isn't over by Super Tuesday, it most likely will be by the end of that night.
The more interesting story at this point may be what happens on the Democratic side of things.
Also, here are final numbers (assuming no delayed mailings because of the weekend and holiday) for the Snail Mail contest, showing as is typically the case, the one who wins the snail mail contest, never wins the Iowa Caucuses.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
33 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley / Anti-DeSantis)
27 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
24 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
17 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump / Pro-Haley)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
8 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
3 - Ryan Binkley for President
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - America Strong and Free Action Inc. (Pro-Hutchinson / Anti-Trump)
1 - Ron DeSantis for President
And here are my guesses on who will drop out before the New Hampshire Primary.
Chance to drop out before the New Hampshire Primary
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 75% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 80% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - January 15, 2024
Chris Christie - January 10, 2024
Doug Burgum - December 12, 2023
Tim Scott - November 12, 2023
Mike Pence - October 28, 2023
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023
But let's start with the results. Trump tends to always under-perform his polls. That looks to be the case this time around as well, although not by a lot, as it is well within any margin of errors of most polls.
Meanwhile all the other candidates did better than the polls said they would, especially DeSantis. The most recent polls had DeSantis well below what he actually ended up doing. In fact, his average poll numbers have been off since July. It is my experience that conservative candidates almost always do better than the polls say they will.
But why do I call DeSantis the "conservative" candidate? Because he got most of his votes from the conservative parts of Iowa. While Haley got a lot of her votes from the more liberal parts of Iowa. How much cross-over votes from the Democrat Party played into this is hard to tell, but the AP reported at least one such voter did this.
The AP VOTECAST is a survey of Iowans done for the Associated Press and Fox News. A few tidbits of interest.
The youngest voters were interested in Ramaswamy while the oldest voters were interested in DeSantis.
Haley pulled in the self-identified moderate voters.
Trump's influence among those that live in the suburbs is much lower than those that live other places.
Nikki Haley and Christie received support from the pro-choice crowds.
Nikki Haley won the support of the anti-wall voters.
Meanwhile Ramaswamy drops out and endorses Trump. Burgum has recently endorsed Trump.
Going forward, Binkley and Hutchinson should drop out soon and that will leave just three candidates. Haley will do better in the left leaning New Hampshire but not enough to beat Trump. Then the Republicans move on to Nevada. If DeSantis can pull off a win or good showing here he may be able to survive past Haley's South Carolina. If Haley can't win South Carolina, she is done. Does she stay in that long if it looks like she may lose her home state? I don't know at this point.
After South Carolina, there are just a handful of caucuses before Super Tuesday hits. If the race isn't over by Super Tuesday, it most likely will be by the end of that night.
The more interesting story at this point may be what happens on the Democratic side of things.
Also, here are final numbers (assuming no delayed mailings because of the weekend and holiday) for the Snail Mail contest, showing as is typically the case, the one who wins the snail mail contest, never wins the Iowa Caucuses.
Snail Mail Totals So Far in 2024
33 - Stand For America Fund, Inc. (Pro-Haley / Anti-DeSantis)
27 - Never Back Down, Inc. (Pro-DeSantis)
24 - Make America Great Again, Inc. (Anti-DeSantis / Pro-Trump)
17 - AFP Action (Anti-Trump / Pro-Haley)
12 - Best of America PAC (Pro-Burgum)
8 - Donald J Trump for President 2024, Inc
7 - Opportunity Matters Fund, Inc. (Pro-Scott)
5 - Perry Johnson for President Inc.
4 - Finish the Fight (Anti-Trump)
3 - And to the Republic (Anti-Trump)
3 - Ryan Binkley for President
2 - American Exceptionalism PAC (Pro-Ramaswamy)
2 - Vivek 2024
1 - Doug Burgum for America
1 - America Strong and Free Action Inc. (Pro-Hutchinson / Anti-Trump)
1 - Ron DeSantis for President
And here are my guesses on who will drop out before the New Hampshire Primary.
Chance to drop out before the New Hampshire Primary
Donald Trump - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Nikki Haley - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Ron DeSantis - 0% Chance to Drop Out
Asa Hutchinson - 75% Chance to Drop Out
Ryan Binkley - 80% Chance to Drop Out
Vivek Ramaswamy - January 15, 2024
Chris Christie - January 10, 2024
Doug Burgum - December 12, 2023
Tim Scott - November 12, 2023
Mike Pence - October 28, 2023
Larry Elder - October 26, 2023
Perry Johnson - October 20, 2023
Corey Stapleton - October 13, 2023
Will Hurd - October 9, 2023
Francis Suarez - August 29, 2023